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The world in 2040: Optimistic forecast for the future of mobility  

by Ray Hammond | reading time 10 minutes
Mobility will become cleaner, safer and more efficient than ever!
In a special report for Allianz, renowned futurist Ray Hammond predicts that electric transport will replace fossil fuel vehicles, and that modern technology will significantly improve road safety and will mimic mobile software platforms.
By the year 2040, the number of road deaths in developed countries will be close to zero, while road traffic accidents will be significantly reduced. Autonomous vehicles will become the norm and smart streets and highways will transform the network infrastructure. This is stated in the Allianz report on “Mobility of the Future”, which predicts that mobility will become more environmentally friendly, safe and efficient in the next 20 years.

The report “Mobility of the Future” was published as part of the futuristic series “The World in 2040” by the world-famous futurist Ray Hammond, and he predicts developments and trends that will change the mobile industry in the coming years. The report is commissioned by Allianz and aims to help for better planning for the future mobile needs of customers, and its results are to be used for strategic forecasts by Allianz Automotive.

Ray Hammond summarizes the results of the report: “There are four major trends which are shaping the future of mobility and driving governments to intervene: the rapid increase in urban air pollution; climate change; the falling cost of renewable energy generation; and the developments in vehicle battery technology.”
Advances in technology and impact on safety
  • The best news is that there will be very few major traffic accidents and few severe injuries and deaths on the road.
  • ‘Driver-assist’ technology such as automatic braking, pedestrian sensing, forward collision warning, lane departure warnings, blind spot detection and driver alertness monitoring will help the general public learn about the developing phases of self-driving automation and demonstrate that autonomous vehicles will actually be far safer than cars driven by humans.
  • Autonomous vehicles will be used for long distances and public transport in 2040. In any case, they will allow for manual control when a vehicle must make a rural journey to an area that lacks smart roads and network infrastructure.
  • Tech companies like Apple, Google and Uber may compete in the future of transport with current automotive manufacturers, as cars will be built around IT and software.
Changes in car ownership and mobility consumer behavior
  • Most city dwellers in developed countries will no longer own a private car but will become subscribers to mobility instead.
  • For short journeys, city dwellers will increasingly adapt to electric cycles and scooters supplied via sharing schemes.
  • Inside driverless vehicles, passengers will be able to use journey times for work or entertainment.
New solution for mobility
  • Fossil fuel powered vehicles will shift to electric cars.
  • Driverless electric taxis will meet the public’s transport needs, bringing passengers to their destination for a price equivalent to today’s bus fares.
Need for security systems
  • It will be vital that strong cyber security systems must be built into the road traffic networks to prevent vehicles and roads being disrupted.
  • It’s likely that in 2040, traffic police forces will largely be replaced by traffic cyber security forces who will focus on keeping our roads and all forms of automotive transport safe from malicious or criminal interference.
Ray Hammond
Ray Hammond is a British journalist, futurist and researcher, writer of science fiction. He gives speeches and lectures and seminars for companies, governments and universities around the world. Elected a member of the Royal Society of Arts (FRSA). In his Allianz series "The World in 2040", he presents a series of reports predicting what the world will look like in 20 years in various areas of everyday life.

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